Volume 01 | Issue 31 | January 18, 2021
5G + Aircraft Spectrum, 2021 Commercial Outlook, F-35 'Inflection Point'

Welcome back to the Future of Aerospace, where each week we dive into a few of the trends rapidly defining the next generation of aircraft and aerial markets.

Blue Origin successfully launched its New Shepard suborbital rocket on Thursday, testing upgrades to its crew capsule. This was the 14th New Shepard mission for Blue Origin, the commercial launch service of Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos.

The New Shepard is a reusable suborbital rocket designed to take space tourists and research payloads to the edge of space.

More on that here.

Accident investigators working on the crash of Sriwijaya Air Flight 182 retrieved the flight data recorder (FDR) of the Boeing 737-500 that lost contact with air traffic controllers shortly after taking off for a Jan. 9 flight from Jakarta to the island of Borneo with 62 passengers and flight crew onboard.

According to several updates about the investigation published by Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas), divers from the Indonesian Navy were able to retrieve the FDR using signals captured from its underwater beacons. The same divers that found the FDR also discovered a separate underwater beacon that was detached from the aircraft's cockpit voice recorder (CVR).

THIS WEEK: The demand for 5G technologies that boast improved speed and reduced latency is quickly growing. In response to this demand, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is pursuing the Facilitate America’s Superiority in 5G Technology (the 5G FAST Plan) as their strategy for implementation. The 5G FAST Plan includes opening up what is known as the C-Band, or the 3.7-4.2 GHz band, for public auction. (Connectivity)

Commercial aviation has faced major challenges in 2020 due to the near shut-down of international travel in March 2020. Commercial operators and MROs have had to park almost entire fleets of aircraft and maintain them over a 9-month period to ensure they are flight-ready—when the time comes. But as vaccines are rolled out, the future is looking more hopeful for the industry, and controlling the financial impact of the pandemic will be an aim for many commercial carriers and MROs in the recovery phase. (COVID-19 Impact)

The program for the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter, managed by the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Maryland, is at an “inflection point” in which the program needs to reduce sustainment, cost-per-flying hour costs, as the U.S. Air Force looks to double its fleet of the conventional F-35As over the next several years, Air Force acquisition chief Will Roper said during a Jan. 14 press conference. (Public Policy)



Thanks for reading.

—The Future of Aerospace Team
Will the 5G FAST Plan Lead to Spectrum Issues for Aircraft?
Image: RTCA

The demand for 5G technologies that boast improved speed and reduced latency is quickly growing. In response to this demand, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is pursuing the Facilitate America’s Superiority in 5G Technology (the 5G FAST Plan) as their strategy for implementation. The 5G FAST Plan includes opening up what is known as the C-Band, or the 3.7-4.2 GHz band, for public auction.

However, aviation groups claim that this will interfere with aircraft radar altimeters, also referred to as radio altimeters, and could lead to catastrophic results.

“The deployment of 5G in the C-band could lead to possible harmful radio frequency interaction with radar altimeters,” David Silver, Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) Vice President for Civil Aviation, said in an emailed statement to Aviation Today.


What're the spectrum issues facing commercial and business aircraft operations associated with the 5G FAST Plan?
  • The 4.2-4.4 GHz band is where aeronautical radio navigation services operate, according to the FCC. There is a 220-megahertz guard band between the band that aircraft operate in and the band the FCC is auctioning.

  • “In the C-Band Order, the Commission concluded that our rules would protect radio altimeters used by aircraft,” an FCC spokesperson told Aviation Today. “And we continue to have no reason to believe that 5G operations in the C-Band will cause harmful interference to radio altimeters. Among other things, these altimeters operate with more than 200 megahertz of separation from the C-band spectrum currently being auctioned, more protection than is afforded in some other countries.”

  • Fifteen aviation associations sent a letter of opposition to the FCC in December urging them to reconsider the C-Band auction.

  • “Radar altimeters are deployed on tens of thousands of civil aircraft in the United States and worldwide to support several critical safety-of-life aircraft functions throughout multiple phases of flight,” a group of 15 aviation associations wrote in a letter to the FCC. “Radar altimeters are the only sensor onboard a civil aircraft which provides a direct measurement of the clearance height of the aircraft over the terrain or other obstacles.”

  • However, aviation groups like RTCA say their research has shown the separation is not sufficient. In October 2020, RTCA published a report in which it claims that 5G base stations and equipment onboard aircraft will affect radar altimeters. The report does not show harmful interference from 5G user equipment on the ground.

  • The report separates aircraft into categories to assess the level of impact from interference. It found that regional air transport, business, and general aviation airplanes would not be able to escape the interference.
“For Usage Category 2, which covers commercial airplanes used for regional air transport as well as business and general aviation airplanes, the impact of 5G interference from base stations is inescapable,” RTCA's report states. “In the worst case, the safe interference limit for the fundamental emissions is exceeded by over 47 dB, and the safe interference limit for the spurious emissions is exceeded by over 27 dB.”

Read the full story here.
The Runway to Recovery: Future Proofing Will be Key for Commercial Aviation Progress in 2021
Image: Dublin Airport

Commercial aviation has faced major challenges in 2020 due to the near shut-down of international travel in March 2020. Commercial operators and MROs have had to park almost entire fleets of aircraft and maintain them over a 9-month period to ensure they are flight-ready—when the time comes. But as vaccines are rolled out, the future is looking more hopeful for the industry, and controlling the financial impact of the pandemic will be an aim for many commercial carriers and MROs in the recovery phase.

Flexibility and future-proofing will, therefore, be key themes for the industry outlook for 2021.


Here are four areas of change that will be paramount to drive recovery in the commercial aviation sector in 2021 and beyond.

  • If and When to Return Fleets to Service – Agility and Flexibility Key:

    Airlines had to park huge percentages of their fleets of aircraft in March and many have only returned service to a fraction of their pre-pandemic capacity since then—in April it was reported that almost two-thirds of global fleets were parked. After aircraft have remained dormant for the majority of 2020, the next challenge airlines will face is if, and when, they should return the majority of the fleet to full service again.

    Some airlines will be carefully assessing the value in bringing older planes back to service and many airlines have even made the decision to retire aircraft early due to the increased maintenance costs of older aircraft. Some aircraft will take over 100 man-hours or 45 days to become flight-ready once they are brought out of storage, so bringing aircraft back to service is not a decision commercial operators will be taking lightly.


  • From Passengers to Cargo and Back Again? ‘Preighters’ are Here to Stay:

    Passenger transport was almost brought to a standstill in March and many airlines are yet to return to their previous flying capacity as international travel continues to feel the effects of the pandemic. But some forward-looking airlines decided to pivot their focus during the height of the pandemic and make the transition from commercial to cargo operations—distributing PPE and other essential equipment across the globe. This has been known in the industry as the rise of the preighter aircraft.

    Modifying passenger aircraft for light freighting is no easy undertaking, and again the flexibility shown by some airlines has been remarkable to open this new revenue stream and keep commercial jets from being parked—Emirates, LATAM and Lufthansa among other airlines have all taken on the challenge.

  • AI and ML Help Airlines and MROs Predict the Unpredictable:

    Delays are costly and with the financial impact of the pandemic weighing heavy on commercial carriers and MROs alike, mitigating this cost will be a goal for the industry. Customer trust is already at a low, so airlines and their MRO partners will want to help protect this as they return aircraft to service and welcome passengers back.

    Data from IFS Maintenix users over the last 5 years shows that 45 percent of all parts removals were unexpected—the industry is in desperate need of more intelligent predictions for maintenance on AOG faults, remaining operating life and repetitive defects.



  • Sustainability Will Get Serious:

    Sustainability is an ever-increasing issue within the commercial aviation industry as customers become even more aware of the environmental impact of flying. Many climate activists’ groups have expressed fears that due to the financial impact of the coronavirus crisis, corporations, including commercial airlines, will abandon sustainability and emission reduction commitments.

    But the financial impact the pandemic has had on the industry, as well as the complete shut-down of operations for many airlines, has made more sustainable processes come into focus—the complete restart of the aviation industry is predicted to be based on a much more sustainable model.

    The IATA has outlined that, despite COVID-19, it is continuing its program to slash CO2 emission by half in the next three decades.



  • Sustainability Will Get Serious:

    Sustainability is an ever-increasing issue within the commercial aviation industry as customers become even more aware of the environmental impact of flying. Many climate activists’ groups have expressed fears that due to the financial impact of the coronavirus crisis, corporations, including commercial airlines, will abandon sustainability and emission reduction commitments. But the financial impact the pandemic has had on the industry, as well as the complete shut-down of operations for many airlines, has made more sustainable processes come into focus—the complete restart of the aviation industry is predicted to be based on a much more sustainable model.
    The IATA has outlined that, despite COVID-19, it is continuing its program to slash CO2 emission by half in the next three decades.

    Some of the industry’s leading OEMs, commercial airlines, and MRO players are also seriously committed to reaching the aim of being Net Zero by 2050 and continues to invest in – and use – SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and are calling for government support for this.


Read the full story here.
Roper: F-35 Program at an ‘Inflection Point,’ as Air Force Looks to Reduce Flying Hour Cost to Bank for Future Systems
Image: Lockheed Martin

The program for the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter, managed by the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Maryland, is at an “inflection point” in which the program needs to reduce sustainment, cost-per-flying hour costs, as the U.S. Air Force looks to double its fleet of the conventional F-35As over the next several years, Air Force acquisition chief Will Roper said during a Jan. 14 press conference.

Roper: “The cost per flying hour is not where we need it to be. To get it to where it needs to be, I believe investment needs to take place in the program. In terms of how to make that investment, how to put it on contract, how to work a business deal that makes sense with our industry partners, that is the JPO’s purview. I’ve given them inputs that I hope will guide them, but it very much matters at a fleet level for the Air Force. The fleet grows every year, and it will continue to grow. This is the real scale-up period where the fleet will double for the Air Force in just a couple of years so the cost to fly every member of that fleet and what it charges the Air Force every year in terms of operations and sustainment goes directly into whether it allows any money to be left over for the next generation of systems.”


How the Department of Defense Plans to Reduce F-35 Sustainment Costs:
  • DoD and Lockheed Martin have been discussing a five-year performance-based logistics (PBL) contract for the F-35 that Lockheed Martin has said will help the company improve sustainment margins and reduce the cost per flying hour of the aircraft to $25,000 by 2025.

  • Reducing F-35 sustainment costs may provide the needed room for the Air Force to bolster its efforts to develop and field a sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance Fighter, which may leverage systems on the F-35 to build a faster, more capable, longer-range fighter that the Air Force could upgrade consecutively every few months.

  • Roper has been an advocate for retiring legacy systems to put toward next-generation systems and moving toward digital engineering in aircraft, weapons and space programs to reduce acquisition times and sustainment costs.

  • Asked on Jan. 14 what he would most like to see come to fruition in the Air Force’s future, Roper replied that the service must continue to have a culture of innovation that encourages and rewards risk-taking and that NGAD will be important for a whole range of service programs.

  • Roper: “Specifically, what I would like to see get over the goal line would be taking digital engineering to its most fulsome representation in Next Generation Air Dominance because it matters for so much more than building a next generation tactical airplane. All of our programs are watching NGAD to see how far they can push the digital envelope, and not just the Air Force, but [U.S.] Space Force. I’ve got every PEO [program executive officer] in Space Force, including our Chief of Space Operations, Gen. [John “Jay”] Raymond, briefed into all of the digital work we’re doing, and now our space programs are following suit, trying to replicate digital practices for satellites.”
By early next week, Roper hopes to deliver an acquisition strategy for the Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS)–the planned Air Force component of Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2). The latter is a DoD effort to build a cross-service digital architecture for multi-domain operations–in effect, a military Internet of Things with machine-to-machine interfaces.


Read the full story here.
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