Volume 01 | Issue 30 | January 11, 2021
Remote ID Reaction, More U-2 AI, Aircraft Values Change Under COVID

Welcome back to the Future of Aerospace, where each week we dive into a few of the trends rapidly defining the next generation of aircraft and aerial markets.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced final rules for civil supersonic test flights in the United States in a Jan. 6 press release. Supersonic flights in the U.S. are still prohibited, however, these rules provide criteria for applications for approved special flight authorizations. More on that here.

The total number of commercial aircraft deliveries completed by Airbus in 2020 amounted to 566, only 34 percent fewer than 2019, not as much of a reduction as expected considering the impact of COVID-19 on passenger air travel demand. Airbus also recorded 383 new orders in all market segments and 115 cancellations bringing their order backlog to 7,184 aircraft.



THIS WEEK: The highly anticipated unmanned aircraft system (UAS) Remote Identification (Remote ID) final rules have been released, however, they include a major change from the proposed rules: the exclusion of network Remote ID. (UAS Integration)

A Lockheed Martin U-2 Dragon reconnaissance aircraft used an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm by Booz Allen Hamilton in flight on Dec. 15, the company said Jan. 6. (Autonomy & AI)

The year 2020 was the most tumultuous on record for the value of most aircraft types, much worse than the First Gulf War of the early 1990s, the Asian Crisis of the late 1990s, the events of 2001 and the Great Recession of 2008. (COVID-19 Impact)



Thanks for reading.

—The Future of Aerospace Team
Network Remote ID Notable Exclusion from FAA UAS Rules
Image: Wing

The highly anticipated unmanned aircraft system (UAS) Remote Identification (Remote ID) final rules have been released, however, they include a major change from the proposed rules: the exclusion of network Remote ID. The Federal Aviation Administration cited security issues, privacy concerns, connectivity issues, and regulatory challenges as reasons for not adopting network Remote ID while companies and organizations who advocated for network Remote ID claim its exclusion creates its own privacy concerns and limits innovation and progress.

Advocates for network Remote ID are more focused on the inclusion or more options to comply with the FAA final rules rather than choosing one system over the other.




Why was network Remote ID absent from the final rule?
  • Among the biggest concerns with the use of network Remote ID is connectivity, according to the FAA. Broadcast Remote ID constantly transmits the UAS location and other required Remote ID information. To do this with network Remote ID there would need to be a Wi-Fi or cellular network connection at all times which is not possible in some rural areas.

  • Many commenters to the proposed Remote ID rules were also concerned about cybersecurity, safety, and privacy of network Remote ID. The FAA cites commentors’ concerns over nefarious actors performing a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on Remote ID USS.

  • There were also concerns about hacking the controls of one or multiple UAS, deliberate interference with command and control (C2) frequencies, cellular high-speed pack access (HSPA), and long-term evolution (LTE) interference with C2 frequencies.

    Arguments for network Remote ID:

  • Wing: “The commercial drone industry has successfully demonstrated how “network” technologies meet the required RID elements of the FAA’s rule while protecting sensitive customer information.”


  • Small UAV Coalition: “The FAA itself acknowledges the limits of the rule, including that progress on establishing an unmanned traffic management (UTM) system -- which both FAA and NASA have spent several years pursuing -- will not be served by this rule.”


  • Wing: “This method of RID leverages the internet -- the most ubiquitous technological tool of our time -- to share a drone’s location and identity information, like a license plate number, with anyone who has access to a cell phone or web browser.”
“The FAA received more than 50,000 public comments on the proposed remote-identification rule, which will further the safe integration of drones into the national airspace system,” the FAA told Aviation Today in a statement. “The agency adjudicated all comments. The summary of changes resulting from the comments is in the preamble section of the rule.”

Read the full story here.
COVID-19's Impact on Commercial Aircraft Values
Image: COVID-19's impact on air travel demand shifted the majority of travel that occurred in 2020 to regional routes operated by narrowbody aircraft, presenting some interesting opportunities for versatile narrowbodies such as this TAP Air Portugal Airbus A321LR. (Tap Portugal)

The year 2020 was the most tumultuous on record for the value of most aircraft types, much worse than the First Gulf War of the early 1990s, the Asian Crisis of the late 1990s, the events of 2001 and the Great Recession of 2008. The very nature of the COVID-19 pandemic inevitably meant that aviation was going to be specifically impacted.

As more aircraft were placed into storage, schedules were cancelled, and international movement restricted, aircraft values underwent a significant readjustment with widebodies particularly impacted.

How are Commercial Aircraft Values Changing Under the Impact of COVID-19?
  • The longer an aircraft remains in storage, the more expensive it is to return to service. The values of some aircraft types – the A380, the B747-400, the B777 – collapsed and the A330 and B777-300ER were already struggling.

  • Narrowbody aircraft values fell by between 15-30 percent and widebodies aircraft values by between 20-45 percent as a result of COVID-19.

  • The newer aircraft still in production have suffered the least while ageing aircraft no longer in production or reaching the end of their product life cycle experienced the most severe discounting.

  • The lease rentals for many aircraft types suffered to a greater degree than values with lessors experiencing rental deferrals and repossessions. Lessors have increasingly found it necessary to introduce impairments in their accounts to reflect the loss of value in their assets.

  • Yet, despite the negativity surrounding 2020, transactions still took place with aircraft being moved between operators, albeit at much lower rental levels, and even power by the hour arrangements.
The change in market structure will see lesser emphasis on larger aircraft and a realignment towards longer range narrowbody aircraft such as the A321 that can more match supply and demand.

As the incumbent operators have contracted operations, then this presents opportunities for new market entrants, particularly those that are able to offer a lower cost base. This will see some demand for narrowbody aircraft that might otherwise have remained in storage.



Read the full story here.
U-2 Flies with Booz Allen Hamilton Artificial Intelligence Algorithm
Image: Lockheed Martin

A Lockheed Martin U-2 Dragon reconnaissance aircraft used an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm by Booz Allen Hamilton in flight on Dec. 15, the company said Jan. 6.

The flight came in support of the 9th Reconnaissance Wing’s U-2 Federal Laboratory at Beale AFB, Calif.

Highlights from the Flight:
  • During the Dec. 15 flight–a reconnaissance mission for a simulated missile strike, the ARTUµ algorithm helped navigate the aircraft and used the radar to search for enemy missile launchers, while the pilot flew the aircraft, coordinated with the AI on sensor operation, and used the radar to look for “threatening aircraft,” the Air Force said.

  • Air Force: “The flight was part of a precisely constructed scenario which pitted the AI against another dynamic computer algorithm in order to prove the new technology. After takeoff, the sensor control was positively handed-off to ARTUµ who then manipulated the sensor, based off insight previously learned from over a half-million computer simulated training iterations. The pilot and AI successfully teamed to share the sensor and achieve the mission objectives.”

  • Booz Allen said that it had moved AI “from the lab to the skies in fewer than 40 days” through modification of an open source reinforcement learning algorithm, the development of two sensor-sharing and control games for the company’s algorithm to improve its ability to perform dynamically in flight, and development of a web-based user interface for pilots in the air.

Booz Allen: “Booz Allen used cutting-edge industry practices to deploy AI capability and speed the software-delivery process through automation of management and execution of containerized applications. This approach can help aircraft crews adapt to sudden needs by leveraging DevSecOps, a security-focused software-development-pipeline approach.”


Read the full story here.
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